Prospects of low-carbon development in Russia: the role of renewable energy and challenges of sanctions

Abstract

The article analyses the volume of electricity production in Russia at solar and wind power plants. The conducted studies allowed the authors to assess the potential for reducing carbon dioxide (СО2) emissions by using these renewable energy sources. The role of renewable energy in the energy supply of Russian regions and in the reduction of СО2 emissions is assessed. The regions of Russia were ranked by the level of decarbonisation due to use of renewable energy sources, and there was assessed the role of renewable energy in the energy balances of the country’s regions. In 2023 due to the operation of power facilities without the use of fossil fuels it is possible to avoid emissions of 4.75 million tons. The study revealed a positive trend in reducing СО2 emissions in all leading in RE regions of Russia from 2020 to 2030. According to the forecast using neural networks the total reduction in СО2 emissions due to the use of renewable energy sources in all the regions under consideration may amount to approximately 0.46% of the total СО2 emissions in Russia in 2022 by 2030. This shows not so significant prospects for renewable energy in terms of decarbonisation while maintaining the current place of increasing the capacity of their use in Russia. However, for some regions located in the Southern Federal District, the development of renewable energy sources is of great importance for improving the environmental situation and shows the need for further development and support of domestic technologies.