Medicina v Kuzbasse (Mar 2022)
DYNAMICS OF INCIDENCE WITH MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION IN THE POPULATION OF KUZBASS AND THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION FOR THE PERIOD 2011-2019
Abstract
The goal is to search for patterns of changes that have occurred with indicators of the incidence of myocardial infarction in Kuzbass for the period from 2011 to 2019, in a comparative analysis with data for the Russian Federation. Material and methods. A descriptive study was carried out using data from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), published in the statistical collection «Health in Russia» and statistical materials «Morbidity of the population of Kuzbass» for 2011-2019. Results. Analysis of the incidence of myocardial infarction among the adult population in the Russian Federation over a 9-year period from 2011 to 2019 showed periods of ups and downs. So in 2011 there were 130.4 cases per 100 thousand of the population, and in 2013 – 134.8 cases. In 2014, the incidence rate decreased to 129.3 cases per 100 thousand population. Since 2017, there has been a trend towards an increase in the incidence rate from 135.3 to 141.3 per 100 thousand population in 2019. The increase in the incidence of MI over the 9-year period in the Russian Federation was 8.36 %. In Kuzbass for the period 2011-2019 as well as in the Russian Federation as a whole, there is also an increase and decrease in the incidence of myocardial infarction. So in the period from 2013 to 2015, the incidence of MI was a decrease from 170.9 cases per 100 thousand population to 148.6 cases per 100 thousand population. Further, after 2015, there has been a stable increase in the incidence of MI from 148.6 cases to 183.8 cases per 100 thousand population in 2019. The increase in the incidence of MI over the 9-year period in Kuzbass was 9.47 %. In order to establish a trend and identify the dynamics of the studied number of indicators as it would be outside the influence of «random» factors, the method of alignment by the method of least squares was applied. The predicted values of the incidence of myocardial infarction in Kuzbass and the Russian Federation have been calculated. Conclusion. When analyzing the incidence, it was found that the highest incidence of myocardial infarction was observed in 2019 both in Kuzbass and in the Russian Federation. In the territory of Kuzbass, throughout the analyzed period, the incidence of MI is higher than in the Russian Federation. In Kuzbass, for the period from 2013 to 2015, there is a decrease in the incidence of MI, and from 2015 to 2019 there was an increase in the incidence rate per 100 thousand people. In the Russian Federation, there was a decrease in the incidence of myocardial infarction in 2014 and an upward trend since 2017. Comparative analysis of the equalized levels of myocardial infarction morbidity in Kuzbass and the Russian Federation in dynamics revealed in general the existing tendencies of increase. The reasons for the high incidence of myocardial infarction are the widespread prevalence of various cardiovascular risk factors and the lack of adequate methods to control the effectiveness of secondary prevention.
