Use of SARS-CoV-2 genomes to estimate the effective reproductive number (Rt) in Peru during March – April 2020

Abstract

The understanding of COVID-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2, is essential to improve evidence-based public health policies. The effective reproductive number (Rt) in Peru was estimated using information from 113 complete genomes sequenced by the Instituto Nacional de Salud del Perú (INS), available in the GISAID public database. The Rt trend during March and April of 2020 was found to be similar to results from other epidemiological reports. The Rt decreased during the first two weeks of March. Its lowest value was reported during the week after the quarantine began. The Rt increased moderately after the second week of April. The implication of early decisions taken to mitigate the transmission are discussed. Genomic surveillance will be necessary to understand the transmission and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in Peru, and will complement the epidemiological information.

Keywords

• análisis bayesiano
• bases de datos de ácidos nucleicos
• covid-19
• epidemiología molecular
• filogenómica
• genómica
• modelos epidemiológicos
• perú
• sars-cov-2
• vigilancia