Mapping the Risk of COVID-19 Contagion at Urban Scale

Abstract

From the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, several methods have been developed to assess the risk of COVID-19 transmission using spatial units of analysis based on administrative limits (e.g., neighborhoods, census sections, and districts). The main objective of this study is to create a method to assess the risk of contagion within an interurban scale, considering buildings as the smallest unit of analysis. The general risk equation has been the basis to develop the method, individually assessing its components (i.e., hazard, vulnerability, and exposure). Several mapping tools that address the management of the risk of contagion have been proposed, and the main result was the detection of a pattern of contagion and the identification of areas where the risk of contagion was greater. Additionally, the comparison of the risk of a contagion pattern and the population size at an intraurban scale allowed for inferring the specific vulnerability of the population to contagion. The results also showed that there was a direct relation between the risk of contagion and population density, as well as the presence of areas especially vulnerable to contagion.

Keywords

• SARS-CoV-2
• epidemiology
• GIS
• risk management
• transmission pattern
• urban density