Statistical analysis likelihood of occurrence of heat waves in Kermanshah Province

Abstract

Earth's climate during the twentieth century, especially the past two decades, lost his balance and is more inclined to increase the temperature This can cause hydrological anomalies, and problems in the agricultural sector will evaporate faster. In the present study, the occurrence of heat waves with different continuity in Kermanshah province with use Markov Chain and long-term statistics of daily maximum temperature is 20-year period (1372-1391) has been performed. Statistical data daily maximum temperature for six synoptic stations in at least 20 years of continuous daily statistics were selected. And with an index on the statistical data of all stations, the maximum temperatures that were higher than the index, as the heat wave were introduced. After extracting the data from each station were divided into two categories: short-wave and long-term They will then review process using Markov chain ‌ from identifing and duration of heat waves were analyzed Back. Results obtained showed that the heat wave occurred in Kermanshah province in July and August most of the incremental change in this period has. It is becoming more established, especially in 1380 reached its highest level. Finally, the estimated incidence of 1 to 9 days of heat wave the study was performed in plants

Keywords

• heat wave
• maximum temperature
• markov chains
• kermanshah province