Deformation Monitoring and Trend Analysis of Reservoir Bank Landslides by Combining Time-Series InSAR and Hurst Index

Abstract

Landslides along the Three Gorges Reservoir in China pose a threat to coastal residents and waterway safety. To reduce false positive misjudgments caused by a sudden local change in the landslide deformation curve, in this paper, we propose an effective method for predicting the deformation trend of reservoir bank landslides. We take reservoir bank landslides in the Wanzhou District of the Three Gorges Reservoir area as the research object. The Time-Series Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) method and 62 Sentinel-1A images from 2018 to 2022 were selected for landslide deformation monitoring, and the Hurst index was calculated to characterize the deformation trend. Furthermore, we propose a method for predicting the deformation trend based on the statistical distribution of deformation rates and the physical significance of the Hurst index. After the field survey and Global Positioning System (GPS) verification, the Time-Series InSAR results are shown to be reliable. We take the Sifangbei landslide as a representative case to analyze the validation results. It is found that the determined Sifangbei landslide deformation trend is consistent with the conclusions for the region. In addition, the deformation trend of a reservoir bank slope has obvious spatial and temporal differences. Changes in the reservoir water level and concentrated rainfall play roles similar to those of catalysts. The proposed method, involving the combination of Time-Series InSAR and the Hurst index, can effectively monitor deformation and predict the stability trend of reservoir bank landslides. The presented research results provide new ideas and solutions for landslide prevention and risk mitigation in reservoir areas.

Keywords

• reservoir bank landslide
• InSAR
• Hurst index
• deformation monitoring
• trend prediction