Development and Prediction of Selected Temperature and Precipitation Characteristics in Southern Moravia

Abstract

In recent years, rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns have a significant impact on agriculture. This paper presents analyses of selected climatic characteristics of the South Moravian region. The evaluation was based on the data from the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. Climatic data for future periods were gained using the A1B emission scenario. With regard to the agricultural activity of this region, climatic characteristics (average air temperature, heat waves, average precipitation and periods without precipitation) were selected and compared in the following three periods 1961–1990, 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. The results showed an increase of the average air temperature, increase in the number of tropical days and days in heat waves. It was also found that as a result of rising air temperatures and different distribution of precipitation, the period of drought will significantly prolong in the future. Very unfavourable climate situation is expected in the particular period of 2071–2100 in this region. Increasing drought, predicted by climate models, presents major problem for the agriculture of South Moravia. It is necessary to adapt to these anticipated changes not only in the agricultural activities but also in the landscape management in general.

Keywords

• emission scenario
• agriculture
• precipitation
• temperature
• drought
• South Moravia