Probabilistic human health risk assessment of PCDD/Fs near municipal solid-waste incinerator using Monte Carlo analysis coupled with triangular fuzzy numbers

Abstract

PCDD/Fs are dioxins produced by waste incineration and pose risks to human health. We aimed to detail the health risks of airborne and soil PCDD/Fs near a municipal solid-waste incinerator (MSWI) for the surrounding population and develop a new model that improves upon existing methods. Thus, we conducted field sampling and then investigated a MSWI in the Pearl River Delta (2016–2018). Our results showed that the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk values of PCDD/Fs exposed to residents in nearby areas were acceptable, with hazard index (HI) values lower than 1.0 and a total carcinogenic risk lower than 1.0E-6. Notably, the results raised concerns regarding higher non-carcinogenic risks in children than in adults. Comparative analysis of the frequency accumulation diagram, accumulated probability risk, and the absolute value of error (δ) between the 95% confidence interval (CI) and the 90% CI of the Monte Carlo stochastic simulation-triangular fuzzy number (MCSS-TFN) and the MCSS model, respectively, demonstrated that the MCSS-TFN exhibited less uncertainty than the MCSS model, regardless of the health risk value of PCDD/Fs in ambient air or in soil. This observation underscores the superiority of the MCSS-TFN model over other models in assessing the health risks associated with PCDD/Fs in situations with limited data. Our new method overcomes the limited dataset size and high uncertainty in assessing the health risks of dioxin substances, providing a more comprehensive understanding of their associated health risks than MCSS models.

Keywords

• PCDD/Fs
• Probabilistic risk assessment
• Monte Carlo stochastic simulation
• Triangular fuzzy numbers
• Municipal solid-waste incinerator