Risk Management and Healthcare Policy (Nov 2020)

Future Patient Incidence in Hemato-Oncology: A Study Using Data from Cancer Registries in Japan

  • Narimatsu H,
  • Sakaguchi M,
  • Nakamura S,
  • Katayama K

Journal volume & issue
Vol. Volume 13
pp. 2407 – 2414

Abstract

Read online

Hiroto Narimatsu,1,2 Masahiko Sakaguchi,1 Sho Nakamura,1,2 Kayoko Katayama1 1Cancer Prevention & Control Division, Kanagawa Cancer Center Research Institute, Yokohama 241-8515, Japan; 2Graduate School of Health Innovation, Kanagawa University of Human Services, Kawasaki, Kanagawa 210-0821, JapanCorrespondence: Hiroto NarimatsuKanagawa Cancer Center Research Institute, 2-3-2 Nakao Asahi-ku, Yokohama 241-8515, JapanTel +81-45-520-2222 Ext 4022Fax +81-45-520-2216Email [email protected]: The distribution of patients with hematological malignancies is expected to change markedly in the future due to aging of the Japanese population. We assessed the expected incidence rates of leukemia, malignant lymphoma, and multiple myeloma using national population estimates and data from the Kanagawa Cancer Registry.Patients and Methods: To evaluate the effects of community aging, we compared expected future incidences of hematological malignancies in Kanagawa with other three areas, namely the Yamagata, Osaka, and Nagasaki prefectures, which have different populations and predicted aging rates.Results: The total number of patients newly diagnosed with hematological malignancy in Kanagawa in 2010 was 1970. This was predicted to increase to 2581 by 2025 and to 2712 by 2040. Trends were very similar for all three hematological malignancies. These incidence rates were predicted to increase continuously in patients aged ≥ 65 years from 2010 to 2040, with a 169% increase in leukemia, a 167% increase in malignant lymphoma, and a 169% increase in multiple myeloma. A continuous increase in the population aged ≥ 65 years was also noted in the other three prefectures.Conclusion: The distribution demographic of patients with hematological malignancies is expected to change in the future as the number of elderly patients increases.Keywords: leukemia, myeloma, lymphoma, aging, hematopoietic stem cell transplantation

Keywords