Cyclical patterns in risk indicators based on financial market infrastructuretransaction data

Abstract

This paper studies cyclical patterns in risk indicators based on TARGET2 transaction data.These indicators provide information on network properties, operational aspects and links to ancillarysystems. We compare the performance of two di erent ARIMA dummy models to the TBATS statespace model. The results show that the forecasts of the ARIMA dummy models perform better thanthe TBATS model. We also find that there is no clear di erence between the performances of the twoARIMA dummy models. The model with the fewest explanatory variables is therefore preferred.

Keywords

• ARIMA| TBATS| time series| TARGET2| cyclical patterns