Internal Climate Variability Obscures Future Freezing Rain Changes Despite Global Warming Trend

Abstract

Abstract Although numerous studies have projected changes in freezing rain under future climate conditions, the internal variability of freezing rain remains poorly quantified. Here, we introduce a framework utilizing a novel machine‐learning algorithm to diagnose freezing rain in reanalysis and climate model simulations. By employing multivariate quantile mapping, we decompose the projected freezing rain trend into contributions from changes in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation, which helps separate the forced response from internal climate variability. Our finding reveals a notable decrease in freezing rain occurrence in most areas. Despite a substantial temperature increase, internal variability overshadows climate forcing across a large portion of the eastern United States until about 2050. This insight has implications for practitioners, suggesting that the observed freezing rain frequency climatology continues to provide a relevant baseline for decision‐making in the near term. However, longer‐term design and adaptation plans should consider the projected changes in these regions.

Keywords

• internal variability
• machine learning
• climate change
• quantile mapping
• freezing rain