Probable Scenarios for the IRIB News on New Media Space

Abstract

Identifying probable scenarios of national news media is important through key trends and uncertainties. In this research, using Delphi method and analyzing experts' opinions, among 30 main trends in three areas of technological change, audience changes and content changes were identified key news uncertainty in the next 5 years. Following the selection of key factors, using the experts' comments, the interaction effects matrix was drawn for these key uncertainties. Finally, using the technique of interactive effects analysis in Scenario-wizard software and were identified, , 64 scenarios. 4 scenarios of these scenarios were identified with High compatibility .according to their characteristics, were named titles of News Domination, News Gap , news Shock, and news Inflation.by analyzing the indicators derived from the Scenario Wizard software one scenario is selected a desirable scenario . This scenario is News domination.In this scenario, the possibility of widespread broadcasting of audio and images in digital and analogue space makes the IRIB more domination in the news space and media streaming by providing various interpretations and analyzing.

Keywords

• scenarios
• irib news
• uncertainty
• trend
• future studies