The impact of population aging on economic growth: a case study on China

Abstract

The impact of population aging on economic growth is a very important issue in the process of population structure change. This paper first proposes research hypotheses based on a systematic literature review and theoretical analysis of the negative and positive effects of population aging on economic growth. Then, based on the data of 30 provinces in the Chinese Mainland from 2000 to 2019, this paper empirically tests the impact of population aging on economic growth and its impact mechanism using a static panel data model, a dynamic panel data model and a mediating effect model. Our empirical analysis leads to the following conclusions. First, population aging has a significant inhibitory effect on economic growth. Second, the industrial structure upgrading plays a mediating role in the process of population aging affecting economic growth; that is, population aging inhibits economic growth by affecting the overall upgrading of the industrial structure as well as the industrial rationalization and optimization. Last, some policy implications are proposed based on the research conclusions.

Keywords

• population aging
• economic growth
• heterogeneous effect