Trends in social vulnerability to storm surges in Shenzhen, China

Abstract

An evaluation of social vulnerability to storm surges is important for any coastal city to provide marine disaster preparedness and mitigation procedures and to formulate post-disaster emergency plans for coastal communities. This study establishes an integrated evaluation system of social vulnerability by blending a variety of single-evaluation methods, which are subsequently combined by weighting in order to calculate a common social vulnerability index. Shenzhen has a current reputation of having considerable economic development potential and is a representative city in China. It is chosen for an evaluation of its social vulnerability to storm surges via a historical social and economic statistical dataset spanning the period 1986–2016. Exposure and sensitivity increased slowly with some fluctuation, leading to some alterations of the social vulnerability trend. Social vulnerability stayed almost constant during 1986–1991 and 1993–2004, while it decreased sharply afterwards to form a “stair-type” declining curve over the past 31 years. Resilience is progressively increasing by virtue of a continuous increase in medical services supply, fixed asset investments, and salary levels of employees. These determinants contribute to the overall downward trend of social vulnerability for Shenzhen.