Identification and Analysis of 4th Generation Engine Manufacturing Project’s Risks Based on PMBOK Practice Standard

Abstract

Being at the cutting edge of technology, only a handful of countries have the exclusive capability to design and manufacture the turbine engine. Developing and producing high-performance engines could be the toughest - but most rewarding-advance for any growing aircraft industry. The application of 4th generation engines is vast and diversified from large civil airplanes to agile combat aircrafts. The production process is complicated, costly and may take several years without certain results. The risk management framework could assist the project owners and decision makers to with identifying and controlling negative effects of probable events meanwhile the development and production of the 4th generation engine. The main purpose of this research is the identification, prioritization and analysis of the project risks. According to the purpose it would be an applied and exploratory research. The used framework is PMBOK guide for risk management. At first macro and micro risks were identified through reviewing available documents and closed interviews with project experts. Then two questionnaires were prepared for micro and macro risks (based on Probability-Impact Matrix of PMBOK) in order to rank and qualitative analyze of risks, regarding the project objectives (Cost, Time, Quality). In the next step, The Root Cause Analysis and Ishikawa diagram described the causal relations and consequences of macro risks. The analysis of macro variables determined the realistic and optimistic scenarios. Finally, the technology Attractiveness-Capability assessment was launched to verify the possible risk responses in above mentioned scenarios.

Keywords

• project risk 4th management
• pmbok
• technology assessment
• scenario analysis
• 4th generation engine