Cause analysis approach for work safety accidents in urban gas pipeline network based on AcciMap-BN

Abstract

[Objective] Work safety accidents in urban gas pipeline networks have been increasing in frequency in recent years in China,causing significant negative impacts on public security. However, existing research in this area lacks quantitative analysis of the causes behind these accidents and fails to identify key pathways leading to these disasters of different types. Therefore, the current discussion on the typical causes and dominant chains of causation leading to work safety accidents in urban gas pipeline networks can greatly contribute to establishing a theoretical foundation and providing practical support for ensuring work safety within the gas industry. [Methods] Based on a review of 322 typical accidents that occurred in China between 2014 and 2022, three primary categories of accidents were identified:operation, construction, and third-party damage. An analysis framework was established, integrating Accident Map(AcciMap) and Bayesian Network(BN), intended for quantitatively analyzing risk factors and their logical relationships based on objective data, while effectively reducing deviations caused by subjective opinions. [Results] This study revealed a descending order in the probability of occurrence for these three categories of accidents: third-party damage accidents, construction accidents, and operation accidents. The dominant chains of causation in each category involve government policies and budgets, regulatory authorities and organizations, as well as enterprise management. Core inducements for accidents were identified as adverse social environment impacts in operation accidents, rule-breaking behaviors in command and operation activities in construction accidents,and rule-breaking or brutal construction by third-party entities in third-party damage accidents.Moreover,this study uncovered the objective root causes of accidents,which can be attributed to deficient safety supervision by government authorities,while also highlighting the subjective key causes of accidents,that is deficient safety management systems within relevant enterprises. [Conclusion] Based on the analysis results,several recommendations are proposed.To effectively address the dominant chains of causation and highly sensitive nodes,collaborative risk prevention and control measures should be implemented.Local governments are advised to review and amend relevant laws,enhance their emergency response capabilities,and strengthen safety supervision.Gas enterprises should prioritize improvements in relevant systems,enhance construction quality,and intensify their efforts in patrol inspection and maintenance.Third-party entities are encouraged to foster closer cooperation with the government and gas enterprises.These collective initiatives aim to establish an efficient and effective pipeline network safety protection system in order to mitigate accidents.

Keywords

• gas pipeline network
• work safety accident
• accident cause
• accimap model
• bayesian network