The Combined Use of Cytokine Serum Values with Laboratory Parameters Improves Mortality Prediction of COVID-19 Patients: The Interleukin-15-to-Albumin Ratio

Abstract

Laboratory parameters display limited accuracy in predicting mortality in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients, as with serum albumin. Emerging evidence suggests that cytokine serum values may enhance the predictive capacity of albumin, especially interleukin (IL)-15. We thus investigated whether the use of the IL-15-to-albumin ratio enables improving mortality prediction at hospital admission in a large group of COVID-19 patients. In this prospective cross-sectional study, we enrolled and followed up three hundred and seventy-eight patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis until hospital discharge or death. Two hundred and fifty-five patients survived, whereas one hundred and twenty-three died. Student’s T-test revealed that non-survivors had a significant two-fold increase in the IL-15-to-albumin ratio compared to survivors (167.3 ± 63.8 versus 74.2 ± 28.5), a difference that was more evident than that found for IL-15 or albumin separately. Likewise, mortality prediction considerably improved when using the IL-15-to-albumin ratio with a cut-off point > 105.4, exhibiting an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.841 (95% Confidence Interval, 0.725–0.922, p < 0.001). As we outlined here, this is the first study showing that combining IL-15 serum values with albumin improves mortality prediction in COVID-19 patients.

Keywords

• IL-15
• albumin
• COVID-19
• SARS-CoV-2
• mortality
• prognosis