El Nino Effects on Water Availability for Agriculture: Case Study of Magelang, Central Java, Indonesia

Abstract

Climate change in Indonesia has resulted in a longer dry season. Furthermore, El Nino is one of the main factors causing drought in agricultural areas. The research aim is to study the water availability for agriculture in the Bompon sub-watershed, Magelang Regency, by identifying the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impact related to climate variability and changes in extreme hydroclimatic events. Quantitative and qualitative research methods, including climate data analysis and interviews, were used. Quantitative methods were used based on the climate data analysis using R from the ERA5 climate model and water balance. Qualitative methods based on in-depth interviews were used to obtain climate conditions from farmers' perceptions. The results indicate Climate change influences the ENSO phenomenon and affects water availability for rice and cassava production. The extreme El Nino caused extended droughts and a lack of water for rice production. Farmers would find it hard to predict the cropping season due to increasing uncertainty regarding the transition between dry and rainy seasons. Climate adaptation was needed to increase farmers' capacity to have certainty for rice production twice a year.

Keywords

• Climate change
• Drought
• El Nino
• ENSO
• Water availability