Modeling the impact of using trastuzumab deruxtecan in patients with breast cancer on reducing cancer mortality in Russia

Abstract

Background. Reducing malignant mortality to 185 cases per 100,000 by 2030 is one of goals of the state program “Healthcare development” in Russia.Aim. To assess potential impact of using trastuzumab deruxtecan in patients with breast cancer on reducing cancer mortality.Materials and methods. Three indications of trastuzumab deruxtecan were considered: adult patients with HER2-positive unresectable or metastatic breast cancer that were previously treated with trastuzumab and a taxane in the advanced or metastatic setting (referred as “Second line”); adult patients with HER2-positive unresectable or metastatic breast cancer who previously received at least two lines of therapy in the metastatic setting including trastuzumab emtansine (referred as “Third line”); adult patients with HER2-low metastatic breast cancer who had received one or two previous lines of chemotherapy (referred as “HER2-low metastatic breast cancer”). The set of comparators for each clinical situation was formed based on the clinical guidelines and clinical trials of trastuzumab deruxtecan. Overall survival and treatment duration were modelled on the clinical trials basis. The model was used to estimate number of lives saved in case of transitioning all eligible patients to trastuzumab deruxtecan within a three-year horizon.Results. Up to 3,609 patients p. a. in the “Second line” situation, 1,300 patients p. a. in the “Third line” situation and 2,260 patients p. a. in the “HER2-low breast cancer” situation can initiate trastuzumab deruxtecan treatment. In that case mortality from neoplasms could be reduced by 1,461 deaths in case of “Second line”, by 427 deaths in case of “Third line” and by 801 deaths in case of “HER2-low metastatic breast cancer” over three years. Reduction in mortality will contribute to achieving the target mortality rate from neoplasms of 21.61–24.81 %, 4.31–12.57 % and 5.91–20.89 %, respectively.Conclusion. Using trastuzumab deruxtecan for breast cancer treatment in different clinical situations leads to quantitate reduction in cancer mortality in Russia.

Keywords

• cancer mortality
• breast cancer
• trastuzumab deruxtecan