Improved seasonal prediction using the SINTEX‐F2 coupled model

Abstract

Abstract The SINTEX‐F1 Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) was developed within the EU‐Japan collaborative framework to study global climate variability and its predictability by use of the Earth Simulator. The seasonal prediction system based on the SINTEX‐F1 has demonstrated its outstanding performance of predicting El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole since 2005. However, there is much room for improvement in predicting extratropical climate variations. To deal with this, a revised CGCM called SINTEX‐F2 has been developed; the new system is a high‐resolution version with a dynamical sea‐ice model. For the tropical climate variations in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean, the SINTEX‐F2 preserves the high‐prediction skill, and sometimes even shows higher skill especially for strong events, as compared to the SINTEX‐F1. In addition, it has turned out that the new system is more skillful in predicting the subtropics, particularly, the Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole and the Ningaloo Niño. The improvement may contribute to enhancing prediction skills of the regional rainfall distributions and encourage us to develop an early warning system which may be applied for societal and industrial activities.

Keywords

• seasonal prediction
• coupled model