2021 UK floods: improvements and recommendations from the flood forecasting centre

Abstract

In recognition of the increased risk to national resilience from flooding, we provide an overview of recent and future improvements to flood risk forecasting and communication at the Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC). We draw on the analysis of fluvial and surface water flooding across England and Wales in 2021 to highlight these areas of improvement. Already implemented improvements in both the underpinning science and our long lead-time product are described in the context of high-magnitude, high-impact floods. In addition, we consider more substantial developments from improved modelling of convection to translating this to surface water flood risk and to the essential communication and service provision. Finally, recognising that many of the challenges are shared internationally, we distil our key recommendations for future improvement. These improvements rely on collaboration for them to be successful. HIGHLIGHTS We consider the most noteworthy floods that affected England and Wales in 2021 and suggest developments and further improvements to both our services and the underpinning science.; We describe where service improvements have already been implemented in our longer lead time service, the 30 day Flood Outlook.; We highlight underlying improvements to our science, drawing on the evolution of weather types from multi-model Decider, the Surface Water Flooding Hazard Impact Model (SWFHIM), and improvements from high resolution modelling.; Future recommendations for improvement are then highlighted, illustrating the need for international collaboration, the co-design and co-creation of future services with users.;

Keywords

• climate change
• extremes
• flood
• surface water