The Influencing Factors on Population Growth in Metropolises from the Viewpoints of Experts: Case Study of Tehran

Abstract

The present paper aims to find the factors influencing population growth in metropolises and thus provide a model for population growth in large cities based on expert opinions. Considering the fact that the multiple factors associated with life in the metropolis, affecting immigration, fertility and mortality, are from different fields, including economic, social, and cultural domains, this article is of an interdisciplinary nature. In the present article while the theoretical concepts are reviewed, the important factors affecting population growth are identified, and then grouped and studied as economic, cultural and social, geographical, infrastructural and urban facilities factors; following that a basic conceptual model is extracted. In this paper, a researcher-made questionnaire is distributed among thirty experts on demography, sociology, and economics. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) applied in this study showed that the “economic factors” have the greatest impact on the population growth in the metropolis of Tehran; and socio-cultural, infrastructural and geographical factors and urban facilities have lesser impacts. Also, in the final prioritizing, of the eleven sub-factors, the sub-factors of occupation, income, lifestyle, individual values and the cost of living, which had the greatest weight, were analyzed. At the end, the final model of population growth in metropolises is provided.

Keywords

• Population growth
• metropolis
• immigration
• city development
• Tehran