CHANGES IN CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS AND CROP YIELD IN KWARA STATE (NIGERIA)

Abstract

This paper assessed the vagaries of climatic elements on crop yield in Kwara State with a view to predicting the future climatic suitability level for selected crops in the state. Descriptive and infrential statistics analytical methods were used to examine the pattern of climatic elements for a period of 30 years. Analysis of variance was used to examine the variations in crop yield and also to determine whether or not significant differences in the harvests of the period under investigation. Correlation analysis was used to determine the relationship between climatic elements and crop yield while multiple regression analysis was used to determine the contribution of each climatic elements to crop yield. Time series analysis was used to project crop yield from 2014 to 2025. GAEZ model was adopted to determine the climatic suitability for the selected crops over time 1960 - 2050 and ArcGIS 10.3 software was used to produce the crop suitability maps. The result revealed that cassava, yam, maize and cowpea would be less suitable for production with the rate at which the climate is changing. The result also revealed that the climatic suitability level for cassava, yam, maize and cowpea would reduce drastically with time. The prediction shows severe impacts of changes in the selected climatic elements on both overall climatic suitability and crop the selected crops yield for by 2050.

Keywords

• climatic elements
• climate change
• crop yield
• crop production
• crop suitability