A Machine Learning Framework for Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment at the Regional Scale in Earthquake and Flood-Prone Areas

Abstract

Communities are confronted with the rapidly growing impact of disasters, due to many factors that cause an increase in the vulnerability of society combined with an increase in hazardous events such as earthquakes and floods. The possible impacts of such events are large, also in developed countries, and governments and stakeholders must adopt risk reduction strategies at different levels of management stages of the communities. This study is aimed at proposing a sound qualitative multi-hazard risk analysis methodology for the assessment of combined seismic and hydraulic risk at the regional scale, which can assist governments and stakeholders in decision making and prioritization of interventions. The method is based on the use of machine learning techniques to aggregate large datasets made of many variables different in nature each of which carries information related to specific risk components and clusterize observations. The framework is applied to the case study of the Emilia Romagna region, for which the different municipalities are grouped into four homogeneous clusters ranked in terms of relative levels of combined risk. The proposed approach proves to be robust and delivers a very useful tool for hazard management and disaster mitigation, particularly for multi-hazard modeling at the regional scale.

Keywords

• risk assessment
• multi hazard
• seismic risk
• hydraulic risk
• machine learning
• principal component analysis