Brazilian soybeans: quo vadis?

Abstract

Historically, Brazil has always stood out in exports of commodities, especially the agricultural ones. Currently, among the commodities exported by the country, stand out the products of the soy complex, (soybean, soymeal and oil). Given the tax structure of the country, there is a predominance in soybean exports. This work initially presents an overview of the international soybean market, involving production, export, import and crushing of this commodity. Also, data on soybean production, area and productivity in Brazil by regions are presented. Next, the issue of logistics for soybean exports is addressed, and the routes for soybean exports were mapped and the Decomposition Method X13-ARIMA-SEATS was applied to remove the seasonality from the series of road freight and heavy vehicle flows on the highways of São Paulo and Paraná. Finally, an Engle- Granger cointegration model was estimated to estimate the long-term elasticities between the value of road freight and international oil and soybean prices.

Keywords

• soybean
• seasonality
• cointegration
• freight
• ports