The impact mechanism of population growth and shrinkage on urban economic resilience: Based on the moderating effects of industrial structure and human capital

Abstract

[Objective] Enhancing economic resilience of cities is key to achieving sustainable urban development. With the increasing differentiation in urban population growth, exploring the mechanisms of impact of population growth and shrinkage on urban economic resilience is crucial for strengthening urban resilience and addressing uncertain risks. [Methods] Based on the panel data of 280 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2008 to 2019, this study employed fixed effect models and moderating effect models to empirically test the mechanisms of impact of population growth and shrinkage on urban economic resilience. [Results] The study found that: (1) Population growth and shrinkage have a significant impact on urban economic resilience, with a greater effect on the cities’ ability to withstand risks than on their economic recovery capabilities. (2) Mechanism analysis result indicates that industrial structure and human capital level played a positive moderating role in the impact of population growth and shrinkage on urban economic resilience. (3) The effects of industrial structure upgrading and human capital varied with city size and resource endowment, with the industrial structure upgrading effect more pronounced in large cities and non-resource-based economic regions. [Conclusion] Improving the level of human capital and accelerating industrial agglomeration and upgrading are important strategies to enhance urban economic resilience in the context of population growth differentiation. The findings of this study can provide important references for different regions to formulate sustainable development paths adapted to population growth or shrinkage.

Keywords

• urban shrinkage|urban economic resilience|industrial structure upgrading|human capital level|moderating effect model|china