Self-evolving artificial intelligence framework to better decipher short-term large earthquakes

Abstract

Abstract Large earthquakes (EQs) occur at surprising loci and timing, and their descriptions remain a long-standing enigma. Finding answers by traditional approaches or recently emerging machine learning (ML)-driven approaches is formidably difficult due to data scarcity, interwoven multiple physics, and absent first principles. This paper develops a novel artificial intelligence (AI) framework that can transform raw observational EQ data into ML-friendly new features via basic physics and mathematics and that can self-evolve in a direction to better reproduce short-term large EQs. An advanced reinforcement learning (RL) architecture is placed at the highest level to achieve self-evolution. It incorporates transparent ML models to reproduce magnitude and spatial location of large EQs ( $$M_w \ge $$ 6.5) weeks before of the failure. Verifications with 40-year EQs in the western U.S. and comparisons against a popular EQ forecasting method are promising. This work will add a new dimension of AI technologies to large EQ research. The developed AI framework will help establish a new database of all EQs in terms of ML-friendly new features and continue to self-evolve in a direction of better reproducing large EQs.