Global chocolate supply is limited by low pollination and high temperatures

Abstract

Abstract Cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) provides livelihoods for 5 million smallholder farmers, but the factors limiting cocoa yield are poorly understood. We present a global analysis of pollination, cocoa tree, plantation, and climate factors affecting cocoa yield, with experimental data from three major cocoa-producing countries: Brazil, Ghana and Indonesia. Hand-pollination increased yield by 20%, showing cocoa yield is limited by pollination, but not nutrients. Leaf litter and large cacao trees, measures of soil resource availability and access, increased yield by 9-19%. Cooler temperatures by 7 °C during the hot season increased yield by up to 31%, indicating substantial risks from climate warming. Agricultural production that enhances cocoa pollinator abundance, protects soils, and mitigates climate risks will be the most effective way to secure global cocoa production and support livelihoods into the future.