Multicriteria analysis model for foot-and-mouth disease risk classification in the state of Goiás - Brazil

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a viral disease that affects several animal species, including domestic and wildlife ones. The occurrence of an FMD outbreak can potentially cause a large negative impact on countries or regions’ livestock production and economy. Performed over several decades, mass herd vaccination has been the main strategy to control the disease. However, countries are beginning the stage of eradicating FMD, which involves suspending vaccinations. The present study carried out a risk classification for FMD occurrence in Goiás State, Brazil by evaluating and combining multiple risk factors involved in FMD introduction and dissemination. Data from 126,345 rural properties were collected and categorized by municipality. The risk factors were grouped into two modules and then scores for each module were obtained by adding and weighting the risk factors. These combined scores resulted in the final FMD occurrence risk score. Most of the municipalities, as well as the herds were found in the lowest likelihood levels. Variables linked to herd density and animal movement played a key role in the score composition. We believed that this model can be a useful tool in the decision-making process regarding actions and strategies related to FMD eradication.

Keywords

• eradication
• risk assessment
• risk factors
• surveillance
• vesicular diseases