Empirical analysis of regional and sectoral aspects of corporate bankruptcy

Abstract

Introduction. Bankruptcy and insolvency analytics is primarily a subject of applied research. Interfax regularly publishes results and statistics of bankruptcies by quarter, but the main disadvantage of such analytics is a short period of analysis, usually up to one year; the second drawback is the lack of assessment of the connection between various indicators in the analyzed area. It seems appropriate to conduct a comprehensive study of insolvency by region, industry and taking into account the relationship between bankruptcy indicators and non-specific, general economic indicators. Goal. The purpose of the work is an empirical study of the dynamics and structure of corporate bankruptcies in Russia in the context of industries, regions, over a long period of time and testing of the integrated use of statistical tools, financial analysis and case studies for assessing bankruptcies at the macro- and mesoeconomic levels. Materials and methods. The information base of the study included statistical materials from Interfax (Fedresurs), Rosstat (EMISS), statistics from the Arbitration Court of the Stavropol Krai, financial statements of bankrupt companies for the last three years of their operation before bankruptcy. The work accumulated data for the period from 2015 to the present, in particular, quarterly over 2019–2024. The authors used statistical analysis methods to analyze the dynamics and structure based on the statistics of corporate bankruptcies; methods of financial analysis and modeling – to assess the likelihood of bankruptcy of companies; graphical method – to identify tendencies and trends in insolvency processes at the macro and meso level. The listed tools were used to assess the level and dynamics of individual indicators of Fedresurs statistics in terms of corporate bankruptcies, satisfaction of creditor claims, at a regional and industry level. The use of the case study method made it possible to show the specific reasons for the bankruptcy of companies in the most sensitive industries. Results and discussion. The work examined the dynamics of corporate bankruptcies since 2015. Since 2019, the analysis has been carried out quarterly, which made it possible to take into account the latest tendencies and trends in the economy. The authors examined industry characteristics and causes of company bankruptcy. The emphasis is on regional statistics: the North-Caucasus Federal District and the Stavropol Krai. A decrease in the number of bankruptcies was revealed, which corresponds to national trends and is a consequence of the regulation of insolvency processes by the state. To reveal the specific causes of insolvency, three cases of bankrupt companies from the Stavropol Territory were considered. The case studies were supplemented with financial indicators and modeling of the bankruptcy risk of the target companies. Conclusion. Conclusions are drawn about the main trends in the field of insolvency, the key causes of bankruptcies are highlighted, the relevance of models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy is shown, and directions for further research are proposed.

Keywords

• insolvency (bankruptcy)
• legal entity
• claim
• accounts payable
• bankruptcy procedures
• profit
• losses
• arbitration court