Assessing desertification sensitivity map under climate change and agricultural practices scenarios: the island of Crete case study

Abstract

The aim of this study is the assessment of desertification risk for a typical Mediterranean island, in the frame of climate change and the application of good agricultural practices. Based on the MEDALUS Environmentally Sensitive Area Index (ESAI) approach, the sensitivity in desertification is estimated by employing 15 quantitative parameters divided in to four main quality indices: climate, vegetation, soil, and management quality. The methodology applied for a baseline scenario (current conditions), two future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and a soil quality improvement scenario. According to the results, more than 13% of the island's area is characterized as critically sensitive to desertification in the current conditions. This percentage will increase in the future under both the RCP 4.5 and the RCP 8.5 climate scenarios, where the critical areas will rise above to 15%. By applying the soil quality improvement scenario simultaneously with the climate change scenarios, a slight mitigation of desertification risk in the future could be achieved. The methodology developed in this study may be used to assess desertification process under various climate, soil, and land use management scenarios in regions of the Mediterranean Sea. HIGHLIGHTS This study investigates, using GIS, the effects of all the above approaches on the sensitivity of desertification risk for the Mediterranean island of Crete (Greece) for the period 2031–2060. This study also highlights the results of the comparison of the future desertification scenarios under the application of GAPs and the maintenance of the traditional-conventional agricultural practices.;

Keywords

• agricultural practices
• climate change
• crete
• desertification
• esai
• gis