Agricultural Resource Balance and International Import Potential of China by 2050

Abstract

The balance of supply and demand for agricultural resources in China is becoming increasingly tight due to the multiple effects of high-quality agricultural production, transformation and upgrading of food consumption structure, and climate change. Therefore, it is crucial for China to integrate the international and domestic resources and markets to ensure food security in the medium and long term. Based on a comparative analysis of agricultural resources in China and abroad, we investigate food consumption demand, consumption structure, and supply structure in China by 2035 and 2050. The agricultural resource utilization targets for China by 2035 and 2050 are proposed based on an analysis of the agricultural resource supply-demand gap as well as import potentials and sources of virtual water and virtual arable land. We find that the import of virtual arable land by China will reach a peak around 2048, with nearly 6.147×107 hm2. Virtual water imports will reach a peak around 2045. If estimated by blue water, virtual water imports will be 1.136×108 m3, accounting for 30% of the total agricultural water consumption in 2017. The increase in the import potentials of China’s arable land will mainly come from South America and Africa.

Keywords

• agricultural resource balance, food consumption structure, virtual water, virtual arable land, import potential