Ecological Indicators (Sep 2024)
Evaluation of spatial conflicts of land use and its driving factors in arid and semiarid regions: A case study of Xinjiang, China
Abstract
The study of spatial conflicts of land use (SCLU) is an important breakthrough to reveal the evolution mechanism of regional human-land relationship. Accurate identification of SCLU and scientific exploration of its spatio-temporal characteristics of their driving factors are pivotal for regional sustainable development. However, the basic theoretical system of SCLU still needs to be improved, and the spatio-temporal characteristics of SCLU at different spatial scales and landforms as well as the spatio-temporal correlation effects of its driving factors need to be further studied. This study utilizes theoretical models for the identification of SCLU. Employing a comprehensive index approach involving ArcGIS, FRAGSTATS landscape pattern analysis, and the multi-scale geographically weighted regression model, the spatio-temporal characteristics of SCLU are analyzed across different administrative scales and Macro-landforms. The investigation unveils the intrinsic mechanisms of spatio-temporal differentiation driven by various factors from 2000 to 2020 in the arid and semiarid region of Xinjiang, China. Results indicated that: (1) SCLU is a sensitive indicator of human-land interaction, measurable using conflict risk and effect; (2) The SCLU in Xinjiang presents a spatial pattern of “severe conflict around the three mountains and mild conflict around the two basins” and the SCLU transitioned from an outbreak to a relief stage over the past two decades; (3) SCLU varies significantly among landform types, with conflict intensity in Plain > Mountains > Platform > Hill areas; (4) Elevation and slope in natural environmental factors, human footprint and distance of patches from water, from roads, and from railroads in social activity factors have inhibitory effects on SCLU, and GDP, population density, and human impact index in economic development factors have positive effects on SCLU, and focusing on controlling potentially high-conflict risk areas and enhancing the upgrading of ecological quality are key to mitigating SCLU. The results validate the proposed theoretical framework and provide theoretical and practical references for accurately identifying SCLU and optimizing national territory spatial patterns.
