Using fuzzy logic to improve the project time and cost estimation based on Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

Abstract

Among different factors, correct scheduling is one of the vital elements for project management success. There are several ways to schedule projects including the Critical Path Method (CPM) and Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). Due to problems in estimating dura-tions of activities, these methods cannot accurately and completely model actual projects. The use of fuzzy theory is a basic way to improve scheduling and deal with such problems. Fuzzy theory approximates project scheduling models to reality by taking into account uncertainties in decision parameters and expert experience and mental models. This paper provides a step-by-step approach for accurate estimation of time and cost of projects using the Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and expert views as fuzzy numbers. The proposed method included several steps. In the first step, the necessary information for project time and cost is estimated using the Critical Path Method (CPM) and the Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). The second step considers the duration and cost of the project activities as the trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, and then, the time and cost of the project are recalculated. The duration and cost of activities are estimated using the questionnaires as well as weighing the expert opinions, averaging and defuzzification based on a step-by-step algorithm. The calculating procedures for evaluating these methods are applied in a real project; and the obtained results are explained.

Keywords

• Project management
• Time estimation
• Cost estimation
• PERT
• Fuzzy logic
• Trapezoidal fuzzy numbers