A methodology based on weather generators for the estimation of extreme floods

Abstract

An adequate characterization of extreme floods is key for the correct design of the infrastructures and for the flood risk estimation. However, the short length of the rainfall and flow data series along with the low probability of occurrence of this type of event cause that, to date, their adequate estimation still presents significant difficulties. This paper presents a methodology for the estimation of extreme floods based on the continuous generation of precipitation data series using weather generators and the integration of information of various types (systematic and non-systematic). The results obtained in the case study, Rambla de la Viuda, indicate that the joint use of continuous synthetic data series generated by a stochastic weather generator, a hydrological model and the integration of systematic and non-systematic information reduces the uncertainty in the estimation of extreme floods.

Keywords

• generador meteorológico estocástico
• extremos
• modelo hidrológico
• paleocrecidas