The effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Insurance Industry (PMG approach)

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on the insurance industry in the Middle East and North Africa in the period 2000 to 2020. In this study, for the EPU variable, a composite index consisting of four policy variables is defined and calculated. The results of PMG estimation method for all three models of the present study show that EPU increases the premium in the short and long term and its long-term effect is greater than the short-term effect. Also, the variables of income, education, population, financial development index and institutional quality have increased premiums (in general, life and non-life) and their impact is positive and significant, but inflation variables have a negative and significant effect on premiums in all it has research models. Based on the research results, it is recommended to adopt appropriate and sustainable economic policies, pay attention to financial development, promote financial literacy and the quality of institutions for the prosperity of the insurance industry.

Keywords

• insurance
• uncertainty
• financial development. pmg