Spatiotemporal Model Based on Deep Learning for ENSO Forecasts

Abstract

El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is closely related to a series of regional extreme climates, so robust long-term forecasting is of great significance for reducing economic losses caused by natural disasters. Here, we regard ENSO prediction as an unsupervised spatiotemporal prediction problem, and design a deep learning model called Dense Convolution-Long Short-Term Memory (DC-LSTM). For a more sufficient training model, we will also add historical simulation data to the training set. The experimental results show that DC-LSTM is more suitable for the prediction of a large region and a single factor. During the 1994–2010 verification period, the all-season correlation skill of the Nino3.4 index of the DC-LSTM is higher than that of the current dynamic model and regression neural network, and it can provide effective forecasts for lead times of up to 20 months. Therefore, DC-LSTM can be used as a powerful tool for predicting ENSO events.

Keywords

• ENSO
• sea surface temperature prediction
• deep learning
• LSTM
• spatiotemporal prediction