The Decline of COVID-19 Pandemic- A Journey from Fear to Freedom: A Retrospective Study from Northwest Punjab, India

Abstract

Introduction: Globally, Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic era is on the decline, and now, after three years, much lower rates of mortality and morbidity are witnessed. The emergence of new variants and subvariants like Omicron is leading into a transition phase where one would only see sporadic surges. After the 3rd wave, Punjab also experienced such surges, prompting this retrospective study to observe the trend of COVID-19 and emerging variants in the Northwest region of Punjab, India. Aim: To assess the prevalence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection during the past year and to analyse demographic variables like age and gender distribution of positive cases of SARS-CoV-2. Materials and Methods: The present study was a retrospective study, with study period of one year from 1st July 2022 to 30th June 2023, all samples (n=3,04,273) from suspected SARS-CoV-2 patients received at the Virology Research and Diagnostic Laboratory at Government Medical College, Amritsar, Punjab, India, were included in the study. The results of Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) were analysed to determine the prevalence in that region, and basic demographic variables of SARS-CoV-2 cases were compared. Additionally, 100 random positive samples were sent for whole-genome sequencing to study the prevalent variants and subvariants in this region. The results were analysed to study the prevalence of COVID-19 cases in the region. Demographic parameters like age group distribution and sex distribution were calculated. To study the dynamics of transmission during the one-year study period, an epidemiological curve was plotted over the period of 12 months. Results: Out of the total 3,04,273 samples, 2,102 samples (0.69%) tested positive for the COVID-19 virus by RT-PCR. The study showed more prevalence of infection among young adults, with 853 (40.6%) cases in the age group of 21-40 years, followed by 614 (29.2%) cases in the 41-60 years age group. Of the total positive cases, 1153 (54.85%) were males, compared to 949 (45.15%) were females. The maximum number of positive cases was reported during the months of July 2022 to September 2022, totaling 1,273 cases. Whole-genome sequencing results showed predominance of the Omicron variant, with 44 (49.44%) strains belonging to the XBB lineage of Omicron. Conclusion: There was a definite reduction in the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 cases during the study period and that Omicron and its subvariants, like XBB lineages, are prevalent in this part of India as well. Despite the decrease in the number and severity of COVID-19 cases, maintaining vigilance and monitoring sporadic cases using tools like Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) can help in tracking major pandemics in the future.

Keywords

• coronavirus disease-19
• severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2
• subvariants of omicron
• whole genome sequencing