Economic Situation in the Far Eastern Federal District in 2018

Abstract

In November 2018, according to the Decree of the President of Russia, the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD) was expanded thanks to including two regions – Zabaykalsky Krai and Buryatia. Those administrative additions haven’t affected the macroeconomic proportions of the FEFD in the national economy. The District is the largest in area in Russia, but remains the least populous, has the smallest share of gross regional product (GRP), fixed investments, and the number of the employed among other federal districts (except for North Caucasus). For the GRP growth rate 2018 appears to be crucial in the FEFD, much like in the national economy. After 2014–2017 stagnation, the GRP growth rate in 2018 was estimated at 103%. The biggest contributors were industrial production and transport (thanks to investment projects in the Jewish Autonomous Oblast, Amur Oblast, Sakha Republic, Chukotka Autonomous Okrug), and net export. The slowing of investments caused the decrease in construction in the region, including industrial construction. The residential construction has been declining for four years. Despite the slowing of the decrease of real population income in 2018, it couldn’t compensate for the negative trends of the past years. In 2015–2018 the real income has significantly decreased in the Jewish Autonomous Oblast, Kamchatka Krai, Magadan Oblast and Sakhalin Oblast. The trend of population decline continues due to both migration and natural decrease. In 2018 the process of population decline due to natural reproduction has, in fact, worsened. The volume of the foreign direct investments (FDI) has estimated to have decreased by half. The overwhelming portion (70%) is being funneled into Sakhalin Oblast. Thanks to the favorable situation on the raw resource markets, the export value has rapidly increased (125.1%) in 2018. At the same time the decrease in import value (98%) shows the continuous challenges in investments, final industrial and consumer demand. Looking at the connections between macroeconomic trends, it can be seen that currently the FEFD retains the export-raw material model of the economy with exploitation of transit and natural resources of the region, which allows to support positive growth rates in these industries compared to the stagnating processing and consumer industries and the negative processes in the socio-demographic sphere

Keywords

• monitoring
• GRP
• industrial production
• investments
• inflation
• population income
• migration
• foreign trade
• foreign investments
• Far Eastern Federal District
• Russia