Grassland Greening and Water Resource Availability May Coexist in a Warming Climate in Northern China and the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

Abstract Greening of Northern China and the Tibetan Plateau (NCTP) has been observed by increases in the remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI), driven primarily by CO2 fertilization effects, anthropogenic warming, and the implementation of ecological restoration programs. Continued growth of LAI throughout the 21st century is also projected by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios. However, the question of whether local water resources can sustain ongoing grassland greening has not been adequately investigated. Here we assessed the sustainability of water resources under grassland greening across NCTP under various climate scenarios using water yield (WY, defined as precipitation minus actual evapotranspiration) as the key metric. Unexpectedly, we observe the coexistence of increases in LAI and WY in most of NCTP. In a warming climate with increasing precipitation and CO2, we find that grasses maintain high water use efficiency to sustain their growth, contributing to continued local water resource availability. Thus, livestock production may also continue to increase under the simultaneous growth of LAI and WY in the future.