Analysis of the Effect of Drought on Resilience of Human Societies

Abstract

Human societies are considered as a part of ecosystems. The interaction between human societies and ecosystems has consequences for them. Desert ecosystem is one of the common ecosystems in arid regions of Iran. In desert, phenomena such as drought affect the lives of human societies. The present study analyzes the effect of hydrological drought on resilience of human communities in Yazd province. Hydrological drought was studied based on river flow index and resilience of human communities using economic, social and environmental criteria by using principal component analysis method. The factor was calculated based on the values of the rotated matrix and the eigenvector values. Multiple linear regression analysis of drought effects on factors was investigated. Analysis of the relationship between drought and resilience indicates a significant relationship between them. The most affected sectors by drought were economic, social and environmental, respectively. The most important economic losses were the variables of employment share in services and industry sectors, rural income and cost, irrigated agriculture, area under cultivation, urban cost, participatory economy rate. The overall results of combining the drought index with socio-economic and environmental indicators indicate an increase in vulnerability and a decrease in the resilience of human societies due to drought. Lifestyle and direct dependence on ecosystem resources should be reconsidered. In other words, generating processing, conversion and complementary industries, extends the chain of drought dependence and exploitation to reduce drought fluctuations. Diversifying the use of ecosystem services and replacing them in times of drought events can increase the resiliency of human societies.

Keywords

• principal component analysis
• ecosystem services
• urban communities
• economics
• employment