Research on Load Fluctuation of Electronic Information Industry Based on Recurrence Interval Analysis

Abstract

With the upgrading and adjustment of China's industrial structure, the load of the electronic information industry is increasingly important. The safety of production and electricity is a major concern in the electronic information industry. This paper adopts the recurrence interval analysis method to investigate the risk prediction of extreme load fluctuations and proposes a suitable risk threshold setting method for the electronic information industry. Initially, the probability distribution model of recurrence intervals is established by adding the stretched exponential distribution function to analyze the recurrence law of load fluctuations. Then, this paper introduces the conditional probability density function to verify the short-term memory effect on the fluctuations. The risk predication model is further established to estimate the risk probability of the recurrence of extreme load fluctuations. At last, a risk threshold is set for identifying abnormal operating conditions of electronic enterprises based on the risk probability. The results indicate that for the typical electronic enterprise, the risk probability of recurrence of extreme load fluctuations is greater within 20 minutes after the last extreme load fluctuation occurred. It is very likely that abnormal operating conditions will occur within the duration. Based on the analysis results, managers of electronic enterprises can better arrange safety inspections.

Keywords

• Electronic information industry
• recurrence interval analysis
• load fluctuation
• risk prediction