The Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes in the Este District, South Gondar Zone, Northwestern Ethiopia, in the Last Four Decades (the 1980s to 2020s)

Abstract

Environmental transformations are the results of land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes. This study aims to investigate the LULC changes and associated factors in the Este District in northwestern Ethiopia, for the last four decades (the 1980s to 2020s). The land-use and land-cover classes were analyzed using supervised classification techniques in ERDASS IMAGINE 2015 and ArcGIS 10.3.1, categorizing the Landsat satellite images for 1984, 2000, and 2018 into six cover classes: settlement, forests-shrublands, cropland, grassland, bare land, and water body. We used a historical Google map, topo-sheets, and ancillary data to verify the classification accuracies for 1984, 2000, and 2018, respectively. The climate and demographic data were obtained from the Ethiopian Meteorological Station and Ethiopian Statistical Agency, respectively. In addition, data from key informant interviews and focus group discussions were also used to understand the local community experiences and perceptions toward LULC changes. The values of each LULC class were correlated with the demographic and climatic variables, using simple correlation analysis to evaluate the impact of demographic and climatic conditions on LULC changes. The analysis indicated that the least and largest classes of LULC in Este District were water bodies (mean cover = 1.9 km2) and croplands (mean cover = 791.7 km2), respectively. Cropland coverage increased by 2% in 2000, then decreased by 11% in 2018. Between 1984 and 2018, the grasslands and settlements increased by 22% and 0.5%, respectively. Half of the bare land and one-tenth of the forests-shrublands also decreased over the last four decades (the 1980s to 2020s). As a result, the original croplands and forests–shrublands classes (11% each) before 2000 were converted into new grasslands and croplands after 2018, respectively. The study indicated that precipitation, solar radiation, and population growth are the potential drivers, and the perceptions of local communities are nearly in line with the statistical analysis results. Alternative income sources, such as tourism and carbon trading and the participation in afforestation programs, could reverse the situation in the study area.

Keywords

• accuracy
• LULC classes
• LULC derivers
• Landsat images
• verification