Electrical Load Demand Forecasting Using Feed-Forward Neural Networks

Abstract

The higher share of renewable energy sources in the electrical grid and the electrification of significant sectors, such as transport and heating, are imposing a tremendous challenge on the operation of the energy system due to the increase in the complexity, variability and uncertainties associated with these changes. The recent advances of computational technologies and the ever-growing data availability allowed the development of sophisticated and efficient algorithms that can process information at a very fast pace. In this sense, the use of machine learning models has been gaining increased attention from the electricity sector as it can provide accurate forecasts of system behaviour from energy generation to consumption, helping all the stakeholders to optimize their activities. This work develops and proposes a methodology to enhance load demand forecasts using a machine learning model, namely a feed-forward neural network (FFNN), by incorporating an error correction step that involves the prediction of the initial forecast errors by another FFNN. The results showed that the proposed methodology was able to significantly improve the quality of load demand forecasts, demonstrating a better performance than the benchmark models.

Keywords

• error correction
• load demand forecast
• feed-forward neural network