SD simulation on safety vulnerability of oil and gas stations based on combination weighting of game theory

Abstract

Oil and gas stations are at high risks due to the particularity of the medium stored and transported therein. In order to explore the influence mechanism of its safety vulnerability, a System Dynamics (SD) model was established for the safety vulnerability of the oil and gas stations, and the influence factors of the station safety system were weighted through the combination weighting of game theory. Moreover, by setting different safety input schemes for a station, the safety vulnerability was analyzed and appropriate suggestions for vulnerability control were proposed. The results show that the equipment system is the most influencing for the exposure, the management system has a greatest effect on the sensitivity and greater effect on the exposure, and the personnel system plays a leading role on adaptation degree of the stations. In actual operation, the exposure of safety system can be reduced by improving the production and firefighting equipment, the sensitivity can be lowered by strengthening the supervision and perfecting the management system, and the adaptation degree can be enhanced by increasing the safety education and training, as well as upgrading the staff system. Thus, the safety vulnerability of the stations can be reduced. Conclusively, the research results could provide technical guidance for safety management of the oil and gas stations.

Keywords

• oil and gas stations
• safety system
• game theory
• combination weighting
• vulnerability
• system dynamics