Analysis of sustainable development of natural gas market in China

Abstract

Followed by the revival in 2016, an explosive growth appeared in the 2017 natural gas market in China, with an annual consumption being up to 233.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) and annual increment being up to 35.3 bcm. In view of this, it is necessary to analyze the main reasons for that and predict its sustainability in the future. This study demonstrates that (1) such an explosive growth in 2017 mainly benefits from many aspects like the improved macroeconomic situation, deep implementation of air pollution prevention and control measures, price rising of bulk commodities such as petrochemical products, increasing load on natural gas-fueled power generation in East China, rather low prices of pipeline gas, and so on; and (2) natural gas market will be rapidly developed due to the support from the present economic developing trend, the coal-to-gas promotion, orientation of policies implementation, oil and gas prices potential, and so on, but on the other hand, it will be restricted by limited resources, incomplete infrastructure conditions, etc. It is concluded that (1) natural gas demand potential before 2020 will be kept rising but its annual increment will be difficult to remain at 30 bcm; (2) industrial fuels and gas-fueled power generation will be the future target for natural gas market development, and (3) the Circum-Bohai Sea Regions will be the key zone for the natural gas demand soaring potential. To maintain such a satisfying developing trend, we put forward the following proposals: to expand natural gas supply and exploit more substantial natural gas resources home and abroad; to improve infrastructure construction and to plan, design and construct more pipeline networks, LNG terminals, peak-shaving facilities such as underground gas storages all over China; and to make natural gas prices more reasonable and fair with the co-existence of residents and non-residents pricing mechanism, ensuring that the price plays a role of leverage between supply and demand without any administrative interferences. Keywords: China, Natural gas market, Sustainable development, Consumption, Explosive growth, Coal-to-gas, Industrial fuels, Natural gas-fueled power generation, Circum-Bohai Sea regions