Сравнительная политика (Dec 2017)
Spring and Its Global Echo: Quantitative Analysis
Abstract
It is shown that the Arab Spring acted as a trigger for a global wave of socio-political destabilization, which signifi cantly exceeded the scale of the Arab Spring itself and affected absolutely all world-system zones. Only in 2011 the growth of the global number of largescale anti-government demonstrations, riots and political strikes was to a high degree (although not entirely) due to their growth in the Arab world. In the ensuing years, the Arab countries rather made a negative contribution to a very noticeable further increase in the global number of large-scale anti-government demonstrations, riots and general strikes (the global intensity of all these three important types of socio-political destabilization continued to grow despite the decline in the Arab world). Thus, for all these three important indicators of sociopolitical destabilization, the scale of the global echo of the Arab Spring has overshadowed the scale of the Arab Spring itself. Only as regards the fourth considered indicator (major terrorist attacks / guerrilla warfare) the scale of the global echo for the entire period considered did not overshadow the scale of the Arab Spring (and, incidentally, «Winter») - and in 2014-2015 Arab countries continued to make a disproportionate contribution to the historically record global values of this sad indicator – global number of major terrorist attacks/ guerilla warfare. To conclude, triggered by the Arab Spring, the global wave of socio-political destabilization led after 2010 to a very signifi cant growth of socio-political instability in absolutely all World System zones. However, this global destabilization wave manifested itself in different World System zones in different ways and not completely synchronously.
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