Ultra-short-term PV power prediction based on Informer with multi-head probability sparse self-attentiveness mechanism

Abstract

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As a clean energy source, solar power plays an important role in reducing the high carbon emissions of China’s electricity system. However, the intermittent nature of the system limits the effective use of photovoltaic power generation. This paper addresses the problem of low accuracy of ultra-short-term prediction of distributed PV power, compares various deep learning models, and innovatively selects the Informer model with multi-head probability sparse self-attention mechanism for prediction. The results show that the CEEMDAN-Informer model proposed in this paper has better prediction accuracy, and the error index is improved by 30.88% on average compared with the single Informer model; the Informer model is superior to other deep learning models LSTM and RNN models in medium series prediction, and its prediction accuracy is significantly better than the two. The power prediction model proposed in this study improves the accuracy of PV ultra-short-term power prediction and proves the feasibility and superiority of the deep learning model in PV power prediction. Meanwhile, the results of this study can provide some reference for the power prediction of other renewable energy sources, such as wind power.

Keywords

• photovoltaic power prediction
• ultra-short-term
• Informer
• deep learning
• CEEMDAN