A Novel Risk Score Model for the Differential Diagnosis of Type 2 Diabetic Nephropathy: A Multicenter Study

Abstract

Introduction. DN is a common complication of diabetes. However, diabetes combined with renal injury may involve DN or NDKD, with different treatment schemes. The purpose of our study was to determine the independent risk factors of DN and establish a risk score model to help differentiate DN and NDKD, providing a reference for clinical treatment. Methods. A total of 678 T2D patients who had undergone renal biopsy in four affiliated hospitals of Peking University were consecutively enrolled. Patients were assigned to the DN group and NDKD group according to histopathological results. Seventy percent of patients from PKUFH were randomly assigned to the training group, and the remaining 30% were assigned to the internal validation group. Patients from the other three centers were assigned to the external validation group. We used univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify independent risk factors of DN in the training group and conducted multivariate logistic regression analysis with these independent risk factors in the training group to find regression coefficients “β” to establish a risk score model. Finally, we conducted internal and external validation of the model with ROC curves. Results. Diabetic retinopathy, diabetes duration≥5 years, eGFR<30 ml/min/1.73 m2, 24 h UTP≥3 g, and no hematuria were independent risk factors (P<0.05), and each factor scored 2, 1, 1, 1, and 1. We assigned the patients to a low-risk group (0-1 points), a medium-risk group (2-3 points), and a high-risk group (4-6 points), representing unlikely DN, possibly DN, and a high probability of DN, respectively. The AUCs were 0.860, 0.924, and 0.855 for the training, internal validation, and external validation groups, respectively. Conclusion. The risk score model could help differentiate DN and NDKD in a noninvasive manner, reduce the number of renal biopsies, and provide a reference for clinical treatment.