Examining drivers of the emissions embodied in trade.

Abstract

Emissions embodied in provincial trade (EEPT) have important effects on provinces' responsibilities for carbon emission reductions. Based on a multi-regional input-output model, we calculated EEPT for China's 30 provinces in 2002, 2007 and 2010, and we attempted to determine the drivers of EEPT. The results showed that, during this period, the ratio of EEPT to production-based emissions increased over time, reaching 40.24% in 2010. In consideration of its important role in carbon emissions, we analyzed the factors attributable to EEPT through structure decomposition analysis. The decomposition results showed that final demand and carbon emission intensity were two major factors in EEPT, while the final demand in other provinces and the carbon emission intensity in the local province were major factors for Emissions embodied in provincial exports and the final demand in the local province and the carbon emission intensity in other provinces were major factors for Emissions embodied in provincial imports. Regarding the differences among the EEPT of different provinces, changes in the structure of trade were the primary reason.